Turkey Seeks to Lead a New Security System in the Middle East
Summary: The article examines Turkey’s efforts to use regional upheaval, including the fallout from the war involving Iran, to expand its influence and present itself as a central power in shaping a new Middle East security order. It describes the close Trump-Erdoğan relationship, Ankara’s denial of Trump’s account of recent talks, and the possibility of renewed U.S.-Turkey military deals. It also highlights Turkey’s long-term expansion of its domestic defense industry, its desire to move beyond dependence on Western policy, and its plans to use the NATO summit to project leadership. The article says Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan envisions a regional security framework built on cooperation among regional states, but notes obstacles including Gulf skepticism, ties between Gulf states and Iran, and tensions between Turkey’s NATO obligations and its regional ambitions.
By Zvi Bar'el
In Haaretz Israeli writer Zvi Bar'el examined recent Turkish maneuvers and Ankara’s attempts to leverage regional shifts—particularly the fallout from the war involving Iran—to bolster its status as a pivotal power seeking a leadership role in shaping a new security architecture in the Middle East.
Key Highlights from the Article:
Skepticism Over Trump's Statements: The author questioned U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that he asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan not to intervene in the war on Iran's side. Bar'el noted that Ankara denied this narrative, maintaining it opposed the war from the outset and never intended to get involved.
Trump-Erdoğan Dynamics: The article highlighted the strong personal and political relationship between Trump and Erdoğan, suggesting that Washington might take steps to satisfy Ankara. This could include reviving advanced military deals, such as the F-35 fighter jets and jet engines.
A Shift from Western Dependence: The author argued that Turkey no longer wishes to settle for being a subordinate follower of Western policies. Instead, it seeks to impose bits own agenda and become a primary player in drawing regional balances.
The Rise of Turkish Military Might
The article reviewed the massive transformation Turkey has undergone since Erdoğan came to power in 2003, moving from a reliance on military imports to building a vast domestic defense industry base.
The Turning Point: The crisis surrounding the purchase of Israeli "Heron" drones served as a catalyst that pushed Ankara toward achieving self-sufficiency in the defense sector.
Current Capabilities: According to the article, Turkey currently commands the second-largest army in NATO. Its defense industry production has reached approximately $20 billion annually, with plans for new investments exceeding $27 billion.
### The NATO Summit as a Platform for Turkish Influence
The author posits that Ankara views the upcoming NATO summit as a strategic opportunity to showcase its military and political capabilities to the world.
Turkey is preparing to host dozens of leaders, hundreds of ministers, and thousands of journalists, investing heavily in organizing the summit to project the image of a nation capable of leading regional and international initiatives.
The article explained that Turkish authorities aim to market a narrative that Turkey is no longer just a "bridge between East and West," but an indispensable nation in the region's security and political equations.
### A Turkish Blueprint for a Regional Security System
The piece spotlighted the vision of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, which centers on establishing a regional security framework based on cooperation among regional states, rather than full reliance on American protection and foreign alliances.
Ankara, according to the author, seeks to build a security cooperation network linking Turkey with the Gulf states, securing itself a pivotal position in any future security arrangements in the Middle East.
Obstacles Facing Turkish Ambitions
The article noted that the Turkish project faces several challenges:
Gulf Reservations: Gulf states maintain open communication channels and relations with Iran, and do not appear ready to grant Turkey the role of regional security leader.
Historical Skepticism: Despite the improvement in economic and military relations in recent years, historical Gulf skepticism toward Turkish policies persists.
The NATO Conflict: Turkey's NATO membership imposes obligations that may clash with an independent role as a regional security guarantor, creating a contradiction between its regional ambitions and its Western alignments.
Conclusion:
The author concludes that Ankara is attempting to capitalize on the current regional moment to present itself as a primary hub for regional security and an un-bypassable partner in future Middle East arrangements. However, the success of this project remains contingent on the willingness of regional states to accept Turkey's role, and Ankara's ability to reconcile its regional ambitions with its commitments within the NATO alliance.